Good macroeconomic statistics from the United States have improved the mood of investors, who in the last few months have considered only two scenarios: a recession or a prolonged period of high inflation. Now there are hopes for a more positive outcome, as a result of which the pressure on risky instruments has somewhat weakened.
The main release was the publication of statistics on the labor market. Despite the slowdown in the number of jobs created outside agriculture (+270 thousand), the figures still turned out to be better than expected. This, combined with unemployment of 3.6%, allows us to count on the relatively mild consequences of reducing incentives.
At the same time, the dollar, a safe haven currency, where investors have fled in recent months in search of protection from market turbulence, still feels confident, although it would seem that the need for its purchases should have disappeared. Here it is worth looking for reasons in the presence of serious problems in other economies, in particular the Eurozone – the belief in the recession of the EU is getting stronger. At the same time, market participants expect a decline in GDP even if the supply of Russian blue fuel is maintained.
In such conditions, it is still not worth counting on a strong growth of risky assets.
Yes, there is some rebound from local lows in the US stock indices and cryptocurrency, but there is still no talk of a full-fledged recovery rally. Among other things, there is too much talk now about the possible collapse of bubbles in the real estate market and used cars in the United States, so that major players in the absence of cheap liquidity decided to turn around to the full.
Apparently, the Fed will keep interest rates at high levels for a long time, as it fears a repeat of the situation of the 1970s, when the fight against inflation was curtailed too early and further price growth got out of control of the department. Further, already tougher, actions of the department led to one of the most severe crises in the country. That is why the Fed may want to be fully convinced of the victory over inflation before thinking about changing its strategy.
In such an environment, BTC, whose value depends not least on the sentiment on the stock exchanges, may return to $19 thousand in the very near future and go further – to $ 15 thousand.